Ames, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS63 KDMX 220516
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1116 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating temperatures start today, leading into a prolonged
  stretch of warm, above normal temps next week

- Dry conditions through at least the weekend

- Low end, light precipitation chances (~15%) late Monday then
  additional rain chances (~30-40%) late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 704 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Large area of high pressure is situated to the south/southeast of
Iowa today with warm advection spreading into Iowa as southwest flow
has developed in the northwest quad of the system. Much of today`s
warm advection has occurred aloft and there remains a fairly steep
inversion around 925 mb. Temperatures this afternoon in the
teens are still 20+ degrees below normal high temperatures for
today. For those keeping track at home, Des Moines is 7.5
degrees below normal for February through the 20th. Waterloo is
6.8 degrees below normal.

Ok, enough cold talk. Many locations today actually had wind chill
values above zero today for the first time since Saturday night! The
southwest wind will continue tonight and while temperatures will
fall off some this evening, temperatures will begin to steady out
later tonight and dew points will actually increase slowly.
Overnight lows will be above zero tonight and will lead to an even
warmer Saturday with highs in the 20s and 30s. Sided a bit warmer
Saturday due to the southwest flow and have some areas getting above
freezing. Even stronger warm advection arrives Sunday and especially
Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s. The thermal ridge
will pass across Iowa Sunday night and this along with dew point
values rising to near 30 or above points to a mild night. Monday
will be warmer with downslope westerly flow developing which should
result in temperatures reaching the 50s in parts of Iowa. This may
be somewhat dependent on the amount of melting that occurs
prior to Monday. Currently have the coolest temperatures where
the moderate snow band occurred last week from west central into
northeast Iowa. A system will pass across the Northern Plains
and like similar systems along this track, it will have some
Pacific moisture with it but there will be a lack of Gulf
moistures resulting in mid-level cloudiness and mostly virga.
Do have some very low precipitation chances into east central
Iowa but at this time the the moisture still looks meager so
take those 15% chances for precipitation and understate that is
an 85% chance to stay precipitation free.

Tuesday will be mild again and with presumably less snow cover. More
widespread highs in the 50s are expected. Another boundary will pass
through late Tuesday and Tuesday night and will bring rain chances.
Generally mild conditions will follow though and persist through the
remainder of the week though will note that Iowa will be close
enough to the colder air that slight changes in the pattern would
result in cooler temperatures. A stronger system may arrive towards
next weekend and bring colder northwest flow back to Iowa for the
beginning of March.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Little change to previous TAFs, with VFR conditions and light
south southwesterly winds expected through the day. Have
maintained LLWS mention at KMCW and KALO through the next few
hours, otherwise minimal impacts through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Dodson